Thursday, August 20, 2020

Calculating your risk of death from the SARS CoV-2 virus

Are you making a rational judgment regarding your risk of death from the SARS CoV-2 virus? Read on to find out.

The first thing that you should understand is what I knew back in March after comparing current information about the SARS CoV-2 virus to my knowledge of other viruses. That is when I contacted the Indiana Department of Health and offered to be infected with the SARS CoV-2 virus so I could be quarantined and the effects on me be observed in a controlled environment.[fn1] What I knew at that time was that the SARS CoV-2 virus is not deadly.

If a human being receives a threshold concentration of the Marburg Virus then death occurs 88% of the time. Thus, it is deadly. Likewise there are venoms, bacterias and other viruses that when, across demographic lines, humans receive a common threshold level that death is nearly assured. Those are also considered deadly. Contrarily there are people who have received a concentration of the SARS CoV-2 virion far exceeding the threshold of some people who have died but did not develop the Coronavirus Disease 2019 [CoViD-19]. If the SARS CoV-2 virus was deadly then there would be a common exposure level that resulted in near certain death. That there are people who receive a higher than common SARS CoV-2 virion exposure and remain asymptomatic while some who have a low exposure die clearly demonstrates that it is not deadly. Yet people are said to die from it.

So how is it said that people are dying from CoViD-19?

The vast majority of people who have died while CoViD-19 is active within them have a comorbidity. That is, the person has an existing physiological condition that renders them to have a greater susceptibility to adverse outcomes from a viral infection. If a person dies while CoViD-19 is active within them then the death is classified as death by CoViD-19.

The comorbidity is the key to determining risk of death and why I am unconcerned about the SARS CoV-2 virus. Let me explain the comorbidity by analogy. Take a person who lacks the enzyme thrombin which leads to the production of clotting in the blood. This person falls while walking through the desert and gets a gash in his arm. I would wrap my arm with duct tape and remove it in a few hours after sufficient clotting, then clean and cover later using gauze and medical tape. Some people would go to the ER and get stitches. Our hypothetical vagabond however marches across the desert leaving a trail of blood. As the brain of our wanderer is deprived of oxygen he becomes disoriented. As he wanders aimlessly through the hot desert he collapses. Eventually he dies lying on the desert floor. He was severely dehydrated, had a gash which finally quit bleeding, and had lost a significant amount of blood.

So what killed him?

If he had sufficient oxygen to his brain to keep him oriented and able to get to aid before becoming dehydrated he would have lived. If he hadn’t fallen and received the gash then he wouldn’t have bled and would have made it out of the desert before becoming dehydrated and would have lived. If his blood would have clotted then he would have had sufficient oxygen to his brain and he would have stayed his course and gotten out of the desert alive. Did Hemophilia, the cut, or dehydration kill him?

So having the condition of hemophilia didn’t kill him because he had lived with it unscathed as many people do. The cut wasn’t enough to be deadly to a person as many have received a similar cut and, although untreated, recovered. He wasn’t deprived of enough oxygen to kill him. Having a declining level of water in the body wasn’t enough to kill him during the time he planned to be there. Many people have dehydrated to that point and survived. So what killed him?

The acute act was the gash which was complicated by hemophilia which produced the complication of disorientation which produced the complication of dehydration due to extended time under the sun. That is how CoViD-19 supposedly kills people. Due to some complication that an infected person presents, the SARS CoV-2 reaches the disease state of CoViD-19. If the person dies during the active state then the acute condition gets the blame. Thus, the ailing or weakened person died from CoViD-19.

So why would I seek to intentionally be infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus?

I have been through training seminars related to previous strains of influenza virus. I have studied the indications of various viruses and treatment protocols over the years. Most important though is that I have total wellness. I am often examined or treated as a participant in physiological or psychological research investigations as a healthy subject. My last medical treatment was a surgery in 1991 which was the final follow-up to an initial surgery in 1989 following being struck by a truck. At age 51 I have no diagnosed adverse mental or physical conditions nor do I express any symptoms related to such. A week ago a blood draw was done and my vitals were taken. My blood pressure was alarmingly high at 138/84 but my pulse was only slightly above expectation at 49. Overall, I am quite healthy.

I knew that exposure to the SARS CoV-2 virus would not harm me. It would be another way that I could serve the greater good by continuing to be a healthy test subject. Additionally, I get the added benefit of adding another virus exposure to my immunity system. Finally, it would provide to me more information about my body.

So what is the statistical probability that someone of my demographic would have died by now?

Slightly over 1 in 60 Americans have contracted the virus. Of those 3% have died [1 in 2000]. People age 51 comprise 1.25% of the population but only 0.5% of the deaths. Thus, of all cases death occurred at a rate of about two-fifths of the average for people age 51 [1 in 4,700]. Of those 3 in 10 had no comorbidity [1 in 14,100]. Based on those numbers there is a statistical probability that 1 in 14,100 people in the United States age 51 who have no comorbidity [this is my demographic] will have died proximal to contracting the SARS CoV-2 virus during the six months it has spread.

The virulence of the SARS CoV-2 virus is highly age dependent and comorbidity also is a major contributor. Someone age 30 regardless of comorbidity has had a death probability of 1 in 38, 200. For someone age 20 the likelihood is closer to 1 in 250,000. The following table shows age brackets followed by percent of CoViD-19 deaths, population in millions, total number of deaths, and concluding with rate of death for the total population. [fn2]

Age Percent Population Deaths Rate
18-24 0.1% [30m] [172] [1 in 174,400]
25-34 0.7% [46m] [1204] [1 in 38,200]
35-44 1.9% [42.5m] [3268] [1 in 13,000]
45-54 5.0% [41m] [8720] [1 in 4700]
55-64 12.2% [42.5m] [20,984] [1 in 2025]
65+ 80.0% [54.5m] [137,600] [1 in 396]

Here are some sample rates of death for particular causes by age groups.

Heart Attack Men Age 35-44 - 3 in 1000
Drowning Age all - 1 in 10,000
Suicide Age all - 1 in 4500
Gunshot Homicide Age all - 1 in 21000
Gunshot Homicide Age 18-24 - 1 in 8000
Automotive Age all - 1 in 8000
Automotive Age 15-34 - 1 -7000
Other Accident Age all - 1 in 2000
Drug Overdose Age all - 1 in 5000
Poisoning Age all - 1 in 5000


The SARS CoV-2 virus results in CoViD-19 in disproportionately higher rates for people who have at least one comorbidity. It is highly age dependent with the oldest adult age group [65+] being 440 times more likely to die than the lowest age group tracked [18-24].

People lacking the basic intellectual capacities to make probability judgments have expressed a panic over this virus which is significantly greater in degree to the risk of death than by myriad other causes. Ignorance of risks results in wasted money, time, and, often, placing one’s self in danger of other more likely harms.

There is a vast array of people who stand to profit or gain power through the proliferation of the virus or a resulting panic. The World Health organization has stated that, “COVID-19 is mainly spread through droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or speaks.” At the same time the U.S. Government has stated that surgical type masks “by design” do not prevent the spread of a virus when an infected person “coughs, sneezes, or during certain medical procedures.” In the same document the government recommended that the general public be encouraged to wear a “surgical mask” rather than an N-95 or other masks which are more likely to prevent the spread of a virus. That no standard has been set for the minimum permeability of face masks such as the standard for the sheathing on electrical wire tells you clearly that officials have no true interest in preventing the spread of the SARS CoV-2 virus.

Government recommendations should be ignored. Instead, rational judgments should be based upon the data which demonstrates infection modalities and probabilities. The incident rate for healthy persons under age 40 is so low that the existence of the SARS CoV-2 virus should largely be ignored by that age group.

Younger people would be well served to pay heed to being more aware when driving and improving skills there. Everyone would do just as well to be less clumsy and learn to swim. If people are going to wear masks then they would be much better served by wearing masks that keep the garbage which leads to heart disease from being stuffed down their fat gullets.

Since March when I became aware of this virus I have made it a practice to maintain physical closeness to other people, share in the use of eating utensils and food, not wear a face mask, and not be worried in any manner about the existence of this virus. All while being aware of the other risks to my well being and addressing those matters in a logically consistent method.

Incidentally, no public health official responded to my offer to be used as a test subject. I am currently a participant in one ongoing SARS CoV-2 psychological study.

I have previously written about the psychological and immunological harm of quarantine, the covert intentions of those proliferating the panic, and the ineffectiveness of common face masks.


[1] 3/24/2020 6:38 PM
I am offering to contract the SARS CoV-2 virus and be used for controlled study or testing. I am an extremely healthy male with no known ailments. My schedule is open until end of May. Please contact me or forward as appropriate. Thank you for your assistance.
[2] Table based upon total deaths of 172,000 among 5.5M cases. Age distribution is taken from the CDC mortality data. Comorbidity data is taken from the National Institute of Health. Population data is taken from Census Bureau estimates.

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